We returned from our annual visit to Bolivia and have the following information to report;
The collection is just starting now and most warehouses are empty with goods just starting to arrive in. The rains are perhaps a couple of weeks late and as rain is required to make the pods of Brazils fall, the collection may be a little later this year. We have heard that the amount of pods on each tree is less, but then we hear this every year.
In fact the amount collected is very similar each year.
The 2012 crop was marked by extreme volatility in price, with price halving in the course of a year. Most people in the supply chain lost money during this season and everybody hopes for a calm year. Some would argue that the extreme price variation was caused by the setting of a high collector’s rate for collection, a price that strangled demand with consequent price deflation. This year there is no price announced and this will be dictated by the usual method of supply and demand.
There has been a significant amount of land rights distribution and we see the rise of associations of collectors who are now forming with the purpose of marketing their goods directly with some exporters offering them the use of their factories on a processing charge. Most of these associations are not tested in terms of longer contract fulfilment. This will make it harder for long term offers, such offers we feel, will be coming from the usual market makers.
All the exporters are waiting now for in-shell nuts to be safely in the warehouse before continuing with sales. This is why there are no offers currently and this is completely normal.
Whilst prices have increased since the disposal of the 2012 carryover we don’t think this is going to be a gold rush year, this is a year to nurture sales not speculators.